The week ahead: Q4 to dictate the market moves..

The second quarter of 2015 has started off with a bang – value buying , moody’s rating revision , easing worries of interest rate hike by the Fed and weak US jobs data kept the Indian stock markets buoyant. The Sensex closed at 28,879 and the Nifty closed at 8,780 gaining 619 and 194 points – just 2% short of life time highs. The Midcap and Small cap indices rallied better than the large cap stocks.

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The week ahead: markets to remain cautious ahead of RBI meet..

The Indian stock markets ended up in green after three weeks as positive sentiments stepped-in the form of renewed buying interest among investors due to attractive valuations, low oil prices and expectations that the RBI may take a more growth boosting stand in the next review scheduled on April 7th. The indices closed 801 (sensex) and 245 (nifty) points higher at 28,260 and 8,566.

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The week ahead: On the verge of further reversal..

As the first quarter of 2015 ends , there’s nothing cheerful for the investors since the stock markets have retreated back to 27k and 8 k levels due to lack of conviction at higher levels. The last week’s sell off can be attributed to derivatives expiry , ongoing tensions in the middle east  and rumors of disagreement between the finance minister and the RBI governor.  In the past three months , although the sensex and the nifty touched  30 k and 9k respectively , the indices could not surge ahead from such high levels and profit booking was seen in most counters as investors were not confident that the indices will hold on to high levels for long. In fact now, the indices have closed at 27,459 and 8,341 wiping off all the gains that it made during January and February. In short, the Indian stock indices have made no progress in the last three months and it ha come back to where it start off in 2015 !

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The week ahead: Markets may slip to year-end mood..

Fiscal year profit booking, derivatives expiry and lack of strong triggers resulted in a lackluster show by the Indian markets last week with the Sensex and the nifty trading in a very narrow range and finally settling at 28,261 and 8,571 respectively. There were no sharp declines and at the same time, investors were not willing to put more money at the current rates.

Moving ahead, 28000 will be a psychological point for the Sensex. As mentioned in the last week’s analysis fresh exposure should be avoided if the index declines beyond this level. A firm close below 28,000 this week may pull the index down to 27,800 or 26,500. For the Nifty the immediate support is at 8,500and the index is right now hovering around those levels.

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