The week ahead: Macro data to guide the markets…

The benchmark Indian indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, had ended last week in green. Stable crude oil prices, normal monsoon season and RBI’s stand on interest rates have kept the markets on a modest run. Both the indices closed approximately 0.62% to close at 34,444 and 10,768 respectively.

Going ahead, the broader markets continue to underperform and the mid cap and small cap stocks seem to further underperform as SEBI has initiated a probe against abnormal rise in share price of certain companies that do not match with their financials.

The week would be influenced by IIP and WPI data, FOMC rate decision, progress of the monsoon, FII activity and Crude oil prices. The Nifty and Sensex would face key resistance at 10,800 and 35,500. For the week ahead , expect the markets to trade in a range of 34,800-35,000 for the Sensex and 10,550-10,950 for the Nifty.

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The week ahead: US fed meet and macro-economic data to move the markets..

The Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty, extended the rally for one more week to close at 34970 and 10692 respectively recording a 2 month high during the week ended. The market mood was upbeat thanks to the good Q4 results, positive global cues and strong money inflow from domestic Investors.

Moving ahead, the rising crude oil prices are a cause of concern. The pre-poll results in Karnataka elections, widening current account deficit and weaker rupee may cause more volatility in the days to come. Further the valuation of many stocks appears to be really high. The lack of interest in Indian market by FIIs is a red flag worth considering. Foreign investors are shying away from Indian markets and their net purchases are approximately 75% lower than in the same period last year – which clearly shows why we should be wary about the way prices are moving. Of course, higher growth prospects, the IPO boom etc may partly justify the pricey valuation side of Indian equities, but it’s best to stay cautious and hand pick only the right stocks at this stage.

Key events to watch out includes US fed meet , Q4 results , auto sales numbers for March , FII and DII activity and crude Oil price movement

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The week ahead: Q4 results and FIIs will be the key drivers.

For the 4th consecutive week, the Indian benchmark indices – the Sensex and the Nifty – have extended its gains to close at 34416 and 10,564 respectively. Forecast of a normal monsoon, good Q4 results and strong inflow from DIIs helped the indices to stay positive. However, the rise in crude oil prices and weakening rupee are threats to this party.

Going ahead, The rise in oil prices – diesel prices have hit all time high and petrol prices have hit a 5 year high – can bring back the threat of inflation which will affect the lives of ordinary people. The near term trend in the markets would be mostly decided by Q4 results and the progress of monsoon. FII and DII activity , F&O settlement for April derivative contracts , ECB rate decision , Bank of Japan’s take on interest rates , movement of the rupee and Oil prices are some of the other parameters to be watched during the week. If the indices break the key hurdles at 34,500 (Sensex) and 10,700(nifty) – the upward momentum is likely to continue for some more time before cooling off. That said, Markets are expected to open low following the cues from Asia with SGX Nifty trading down over 0.5%.

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The week ahead : Q4 results and global cues to drive the markets..

The Indian benchmark indices closed on a positive note – thanks to the dovish stand taken by RBI and the prediction of a normal monsoon in the months to come.  Both the Sensex and the Nifty closed in green for the second consecutive week at 33,647 and 10,331 (Approximately up by 2%). The mid cap indices closed 4% up backed by the surge in broader indices.

Going ahead, there was a sharp fall in the US markets due to trade war tensions and weak non-farm pay roll data. The Indian markets might react to it on Monday morning. The first quarter of the year hence, has become a choppy session that hit record highs in January and crashing in February and March. In effect the indices are down by around 10% to 15% from the recent peak. If the trade war continues for an indefinite time, it will have far reaching consequences for the global economy and the stock markets.

The market movement will be based on the global response to the on-going trade war and of course domestic data release like – IIP data for February, consumer price inflation for March and the Q4 earnings numbers put out by the companies. Overall the market is volatile and investors may tread with caution.

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