Last week witnessed the sensex and the Nifty finishing the week with all time highs. The BSE sensex closed at 26,638 and the NSE Nifty closed at 7,954. It was the fourth consecutive monthly gain recorded by the markets.
Going ahead, it is reasonably expected that the GDP numbers which are at a two and a half year high at 5.7% for April –June quarter will give a positive start on Monday. Power, mining and metal stocks may witness volatile sessions since investors will be reacting to the supreme court’s verdict on coal blocks allocation. Another interesting factor to track is the Nifty’s movement towards 8,000 mark and the probable reaction of the market. It will be interesting to see of the investors will go on a buying spree and push the index further or will let the fear factor enter and pull the index down.
Post Independence Day speech, the markets have regained the momentum it lost a few weeks back. The Sensex gained 316 points and the Nifty gained 121 points to close at 26,419 and 7,913 respectively. The activity in the derivate segment of NSE is also at high levels with an open interest of 2.22 lakh crore. It seems that the markets have ignored data like increase in inflation rates and drop in industrial output and is going ahead on hopes that the PM will be able to take Indian economy towards higher growth and lower deficit in future.
Going ahead, the volume of FII inflows , global news , Crude oil prices and progress of monsoon will be key in deciding the near term direction. The drop in crude oil prices and upward break in bank nifty has propelled the indices to higher levels last week. Sustained rally in both these sectors may push the nifty towards 8000 mark in the coming sessions. The put-call ratio stands at 1 which suggests that speculators are equally divided in opinion at this point of time. This may give rise to volatile sessions this week as the derivative contracts roll to expiry this Thursday.
Last week, the sensex and the Nifty recovered from a weak close powered by low WPI for the month of July and weak economic data from across the globe which moved up equity prices on the assumption that the governments may have to push the economy with further stimulus if the weakness continues to persist. The sensex closed at 26,103 and the Nifty closed at 7.792, up almost 3%.
Moving ahead, the indices may inch towards previous highs of 26,300 and 7,841 and may also attempt to break these levels. However, the most likely scenario is that we may see indecisive movement at higher levels which may result in the indices closing lower after touching the peak levels. Chances of the index recording new highs are low. For information, the next upward target for the indices will be at 26,650 for the sensex and 7,950 for the Nifty.
Geo-political tensions kept financial markets under pressure across the globe, not only in India. The weak sentiments in Indian markets were further augmented by the RBI policy review which left the interest rates unaltered. With all these happening around, the benchmark sensex and nifty closed 152 and 35 points lower at 25,359 and 7,568.
The key events to watch out in this holiday shortened week are IP date for June , CRI and WPI numbers for july , progress of monsoon , FII activity and of course the last leg of result announcements which includes majors such as Tata Motors, Tata Power, Tata steel, IOC,NMDC, Oil India and Cipla.
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