The week ahead: Need more triggers to push the markets..

The much anticipated budget is over and we think it was almost in line with what the markets expected. Banking and reality stocks surged on Saturday as the FM delivered the speech. For the week ending February 28th 2015, the markets ended on a flat note at 29,362 (Sensex) and 8,902 (Nifty). Since the budget was in line with market expectations, we must assume that the market has already discounted positive and negatives . In short,  we can’t say that there is more room for the markets to surge unless there are strong triggers. Indian markets are now at a premium compared to its own historical average and also against peers such as china and Brazil.

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The week ahead – Wait ‘n watch until the picture is clear..

The markets closed last week with marginal gains – the Sensex gained 137 points and the Nifty gained 27 points to close at 29,231 and 8,834. Now, this week is full of events –

  • Rail budget
  • Economic survey
  • Budget session at parliament
  • Expiry of February derivatives contract

Each of these events are likely to create volatility. With the Greece’s creditors extending the time period for bailout to 4 more months , the market are likely to start off the proceedings on Monday morning  cheerfully. The big question this week is whether the Finance Minister would be able to present a budget that ‘aam admi’ wants. There’s a long wish list from the corporate world and common man and it would be a daunting task for the FM’s boys to strike a balance. It is sure that any budget will have its pros and cons. Analysts expect the budget to give more support to manufacturing and infrastructure sector ( Nothing new here , since this is what the market participants were expecting right from the day BJP government came into power – which also means that most of the  shares in the manufacturing and infrastructure space may have already discounted the good news)

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The week ahead..all set for the pre-budget showdown..

Although the outcome of the Delhi elections created a sense of panic among investors, it turned out that the new setback would actually make the BJP more serious about expediting reforms – this turned the gloom on last Monday to cheerfulness on the very next day. Indian markets bounced back smartly shrugging off all the nervousness to end at 29,095 (Sensex) and 8,806 (Nifty). Since the markets have regained 29,000 and 8,800 levels, profit booking in some counters is very much on cards. At the same time, continuing the general momentum, the indices are likely to surge some more.

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The week ahead: Markets likely to be range bound.

In the worst weekly show in last 2 months, both the Sensex and the Nifty dropped 466 and 148 points respectively to end the week at 28,718 and 8,661. There were many reasons for this – RBI policy meet that didn’t change the interest rates , the fear the BJP might lose Delhi elections, poor show by many blue-chips , drama in Greece , institutional selling, concerns over the asset quality of PSU banks, a large number of NBFCs and brokers under SEBI’s scanner for facilitating illicit trade etc.. are some of them. The only consolation for the investor is that the pace at which the market fell is not alarming. Markets are definitely down but it hasn’t lost the positive outlook. However, if the present decline continues strongly for one more week, that will be a cause of worry because it will alter the short term trend of the market.

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