The week ahead: Right time to pick up stocks.

The Indian stock markets ended slightly lower owing to string FII selling, PNB scam and volatile crude oil prices. Markets were trading low for the third consecutive week with negative sentiments and lack of buying support. – The Sensex closed at 34011 and the nifty at 10452 denoting narrow range movement for the whole week.

Moving ahead, it could be a tepid trading week as the negative sentiment that has kicked in may not be easily erased out of the market. A strong reversal in the global indices can influence the markets. The rupee movement and FII flows are other parameters to be watched. For the week ahead, expect the sensex and the nifty to trade in a range of 33500-34500 and 10250-10550 with negative bias. Its right time for Long term investors to pick up stocks.


The week ahead:awaiting an eventful week…

Supported by Good Q3 results and continued DII and FII investments, the markets recorded its longest winning streak, closing in green 8 weeks in a row. The Sensex closed at 36,050 while nifty closed at 11,069. However investors should be cautious since the stocks are now overvalued, especially the small and mid-cap stocks.

Going ahead, the market participants will be keen to hear the budget commentary and react accordingly. There is already a hint from the finance minister that agriculture is going to get more priority in this budget – with rising rural discontent; this could be the logical remedy to win back rural vote banks. There are many other events which might influence the markets – like the January auto sales numbers, outcome of Fed meeting and the US job data. A negative cue from any of these factors can trigger a correction in the benchmark indices. Overall, investors may tread cautiously as it is a very sensitive week.


F&O settlement and Budget expectations to drive the markets ..

Bullish signals from global markets , better than expected Q3 figures from blue chips , Fresh cuts in GST rates and news that 100% FDI may be allowed in banking sector pushed the Indian markets to new highs last week . The markets ignored the rise in crude oil prices. The benchmark indices – The Sensex and the Nifty closed 919 and 213 points higher at 35512 and 10895 respectively. What was noticeable was that the small and mid-cap stocks did not show as much enthusiasm as in the many previous weeks and the BSE mid and small cap index closed lower by 2.1% and 2.7% respectively. This along with the news that the US markets are at over bought territory is a cause of worry.

Going ahead, the week is likely to see some actions as the January derivatives expiry is on Thursday. Markets are expected to be volatile ahead of F & O expiry. We may also see some profit booking, as the participants will now turn their focus to the upcoming budget. As long as the Q3 earning seasons spells out more good news, the current trend in the markets may continue ahead of the budget. The other near term factors that might influence the market movement are FII fund flows, Crude oil prices and Global cues. For the week ahead, an trading range of 35000-36000 is expected for the Sensex and 10700-11000 is expected for the nifty with positive bias.


The week ahead: Q3 and the budget expectations to dictate the market moves.

Optimism on Q3 results, continuous flow of foreign funds and positive expectations over the upcoming budget kept the market ticking higher for the week ended. Markets closed in green for the second consecutive week. Both the Sensex and the nifty closed the week by gaining 1.28% and 1.16% to settle at 34,592.39 and 10681.25 respectively.

Going ahead, the direction of the market will be dictated by the Q3 results season, crude oil prices and expectations over the budget. The compulsions of giving a rural bias in the budget is something that the market participants are worried about and hence more volatility is expected in the markets as the date draws near.

The present Bull Run is giving good opportunities for investors to book some profits and, we believe that some profits must be booked at this stage. The Oil rates which had hit USD 70 per barrel last week is an indication that the 3 year gift that we enjoyed in terms of low oil prices is now coming to an end. This in turn, will put a lot of pressure on the finances and inflation figures in the near future. So any slight trigger such as earnings disappointments or a budget that fails to please everyone can cause the markets to correct