Market Analysis

The week ahead : Q4 results and global cues to drive the markets..

The Indian benchmark indices closed on a positive note – thanks to the dovish stand taken by RBI and the prediction of a normal monsoon in the months to come.  Both the Sensex and the Nifty closed in green for the second consecutive week at 33,647 and 10,331 (Approximately up by 2%). The mid cap indices closed 4% up backed by the surge in broader indices.

Going ahead, there was a sharp fall in the US markets due to trade war tensions and weak non-farm pay roll data. The Indian markets might react to it on Monday morning. The first quarter of the year hence, has become a choppy session that hit record highs in January and crashing in February and March. In effect the indices are down by around 10% to 15% from the recent peak. If the trade war continues for an indefinite time, it will have far reaching consequences for the global economy and the stock markets.

The market movement will be based on the global response to the on-going trade war and of course domestic data release like – IIP data for February, consumer price inflation for March and the Q4 earnings numbers put out by the companies. Overall the market is volatile and investors may tread with caution.


The week ahead : Nearing key hurdles..

Backed by positive cues from around the world , the Indian benchmark indices closed the week with a gain of 1.14% ( Sensex @ 32969 ) and 1.16% ( Nifty @ 10,114 ). The on-going talks to ease the trade war between US and China eased the pressure around the globe and Indian and Asian markets responded accordingly.

Going ahead, the first trading week of the new financial year unfolds and investors should keep watching the global trends which were driving the market sentiments for a while now. The March month auto sales numbers and the rupee and crude oil price movement are also important. Although the indices reacted positively last week , the short term trend still remains down. Whats important to watch is whether the indices can break the key resistance conclusively. The key resistance points or the Nifty and the Sensex are poised at 10,600 and 33,800. These are key hurdles and as long as the indices trade below these levels , it would be difficult to judge whether there is a confirmed uptrend or not.


The week ahead : Bearish sentiments to continue ..

As expected, the markets were influenced by global cues last week. The week that passed by witnessed the global markets skidding on the prospects of a trade war. The on-going trade war between US and China over shadowed even the Fed rate hike and increase in GDP forecast. Another factor that contributed to the downfall of the markets was the resultant rise in crude oil and gold prices. Overall, Indian markets fell in line with the global sentiments registering an almost 2% fall. It is to be remembered that both the Nifty and the Sensex had registered a 4.8% fall last month and it is heading for another close in red this month.

Going ahead, the short term trend continues to be down. The Nifty closed below 10,000 for the first time since last October and it has breached the 200 day moving average which was poised at 10,150. The Sensex too, has breached all the immediate support levels including the 200 day DMA. It would be unrealistic to expect any strong positive movement this week considering that the March derivatives expiry is coming up. A further fall in the indices will reinforce the downtrend and bearish sentiments will become more and more prominent. Hence ‘wait and watch’ is the mantra of those who are trying to enter the markets with money. Investors who have already made profitable positions can think of booking profit or averaging the cost down depending on the future prospects of the stock they’re holding.

The equity markets will be shut down on Thursday and Friday on account of Mahavir jayanthi and Good Friday. The near term trend will be dictated by F & O expiry , macro data like US and UK GDP , FII and DII activity and the movement of crude oil and Gold prices.


The week ahead : Global cues to lead the way …

Once again, the Indian market indices closed on a negative note – The Sensex Closed at 33,176 and the Nifty closed at 10,195 due to negative cues such as possibility of political instability in 2019, The impact of the PNB scam and the RBI’s blanket ban on issuing LOU and widening current account deficit.

Going ahead, the US fed meeting is the big event coming up. Experts say that a rate hike is possible. The crude oil price movement is also important to watch. As far as the Nifty is concerned, it is hovering just above the 200 day moving average at 10,150. Multiple closing below the moving average can drag the index down to 9,200-9,500 levels in no time.  So traders need to be extra cautious in taking positions. For the week ahead, we expect the Sensex to trade in a range of 32,500-33,500 and Nifty in a range of 10100 – 10300. A bullish momentum is hard to come in the present scenario.