Market Analysis

The week ahead: Indices at psychological barrier..

The markets have been on a roll so far with 5th weekly gains consecutively. The benchmark indices The Sensex and the Nifty closed at 28893 and 8,940 respectively and both the indices have moved past the key resistances at 28500 and 8800 respectively.

Going ahead, positive market cues and Buy back announcements have brought in a lot of enthusiasm in the markets. The markets have already logged in 7% gains in the last 5 weeks and this momentum is likely to continue till the assembly election results come out on March 11th. For this week, there are no major triggers awaited. Auto sales numbers for February and GDP data to be published on Tuesday are the major events to be noted.

The near term market direction seems to be positive. A fall in GDP data ( to be announced on Tuesday) and surprise results in assembly results can cause the markets to retreat a bit.

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The week ahead – Riding on a short term bull …

From the start of this calendar year, the benchmarks Sensex and the Nifty has been on a roll registering almost 10% growth. This has taken the indices close to the 2016 highs and now, the discussion that’s doing rounds is all about the bullish targets possible from hereon. The RBI stance on interest rates was surprisingly ignored by the markets and the corporate earnings so far showed less impact on account of demonetization. The front line stocks have recorded a growth of approximately 7% and the mid cap and small cap sections have clocked a growth of more than 12% in the current year till date. Given the scenario, it only natural that the bullish sentiments are back.

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The week ahead: all eyes on budget 2017.

The Indian stock market benchmarks – the Sensex and the Nifty – closed at 3.1% and 3.5% higher at 27,882 and 8641 respectively signalling optimism that the finance minister will deliver a good budget on February 1. The entire market movement this week is likely to be influenced by this single event. This budget also happens to be the first one after demonetization and hence, to compensate the damage caused, big bang reforms are expected by the market participants. The sharp close last week was the result of pre-budget buying. The rally was led by banking stocks.

Going ahead, apart from the budget there are a lot of other events lined up – Q3 results from many companies, announcement of US home sales data, Outcome of bank of japan meeting, the results of FOMC meeting and the BOE meeting. So far the global cues are positive with the Dow and Nikkei closing higher and the foreign portfolio investors showing high interest in Indian markets.

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The week ahead : Volatile sessions expected..

This is going to be a holiday shortened week .The markets will be closed on 26th Jan for the republic day. The broader indices – Nifty and the Sensex – closed at 27035 and 8349 respectively signalling indecision over the direction of the market.

Going ahead, this week also looks like a more turbulent week due to the following reasons –

  • The markets will be keenly watching US president’s Donald Trump’s words to get an idea about what’s in store in the near future.
  • Q3 results in India which is not likely to spring many surprises.
  • Holiday shortened trading week.
  • January Derivatives expiry
  • Upcoming budget.

Apart from the main events, the markets are also likely to react to the SEBI’s decision to bring in more control on participatory notes.

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