Market Analysis

The week ahead – Riding on a short term bull …

From the start of this calendar year, the benchmarks Sensex and the Nifty has been on a roll registering almost 10% growth. This has taken the indices close to the 2016 highs and now, the discussion that’s doing rounds is all about the bullish targets possible from hereon. The RBI stance on interest rates was surprisingly ignored by the markets and the corporate earnings so far showed less impact on account of demonetization. The front line stocks have recorded a growth of approximately 7% and the mid cap and small cap sections have clocked a growth of more than 12% in the current year till date. Given the scenario, it only natural that the bullish sentiments are back.


The week ahead: all eyes on budget 2017.

The Indian stock market benchmarks – the Sensex and the Nifty – closed at 3.1% and 3.5% higher at 27,882 and 8641 respectively signalling optimism that the finance minister will deliver a good budget on February 1. The entire market movement this week is likely to be influenced by this single event. This budget also happens to be the first one after demonetization and hence, to compensate the damage caused, big bang reforms are expected by the market participants. The sharp close last week was the result of pre-budget buying. The rally was led by banking stocks.

Going ahead, apart from the budget there are a lot of other events lined up – Q3 results from many companies, announcement of US home sales data, Outcome of bank of japan meeting, the results of FOMC meeting and the BOE meeting. So far the global cues are positive with the Dow and Nikkei closing higher and the foreign portfolio investors showing high interest in Indian markets.


The week ahead : Volatile sessions expected..

This is going to be a holiday shortened week .The markets will be closed on 26th Jan for the republic day. The broader indices – Nifty and the Sensex – closed at 27035 and 8349 respectively signalling indecision over the direction of the market.

Going ahead, this week also looks like a more turbulent week due to the following reasons –

  • The markets will be keenly watching US president’s Donald Trump’s words to get an idea about what’s in store in the near future.
  • Q3 results in India which is not likely to spring many surprises.
  • Holiday shortened trading week.
  • January Derivatives expiry
  • Upcoming budget.

Apart from the main events, the markets are also likely to react to the SEBI’s decision to bring in more control on participatory notes.


The week ahead: Trump’s speech to set the tone..

The Indian stock markets closed the first week of 2017 n a positive note as there was some good news from around the globe and lesser than expected effect of demonetization. The benchmarks – Sensex and the Nifty  - closed 133 and 58 points higher respectively at 26626 and 8186 giving some hope for the investors in the new year.

Going ahead, the main factor that can impact emerging markets including India would be US president-elect Donald trump’s stimulus plans that are expected to kick off more jobs in the US. His policies are likely to take the world economy for a turbulent ride in 2017. One of the most feared factors is the possible rise in fed interest rates that could make the dollar stronger against the Indian rupee. This would mean good times for he export industry but it would also mean lesser foreign investor inflows into the country which will affect the economy in a big way.