Market Analysis

Expected market outlook

SENSEX (15737) NIFTY (4714) – 26th -30th December 2011

The rise from last week’s opening at 15491 to 15737 would seem like an approximately 1.5% increase in the index but, those who survived through the week knows that it was full of drama. Market fluctuated heavily falling to the lowest in 28 months at 15136 and then, gradually moved up and halted at 15737. Similar was the case with Nifty – dropped to 4531 and finally settled at 4714.

The ‘year end’ is a factor that affects every one. All of us would like to take a break. That’s what will be reflected in the markets next week. In my opinion, there is nothing much to expect on the equity front. Overall, the markets should end the year with an year on drop of 20%-23%.


Expected market outlook

SENSEX (15491) NIFTY (4651)

It was a week with abundant negative news – First came the weak industrial production data, followed by falling rupee, high inflation, weak advance tax numbers by some corporates, outflow of foreign funds, increasing current account deficit, continuing debt crisis in Europe.. and finally, the report of financial intelligence unit that there are suspicious transactions in the stock market that are linked to terrorist financing.

Yet, Not everything around is negative.


Sensex (16,846.8) Nifty (5,050) – Expected outlook

I had said in my last weekly report about an expected pull back to 16000 levels.  The Sensex jumped 1151 points or 7.3% to end at 16,847 . The S&P CNX Nifty surged 340 points or 7.2% to close at 5050.  Backed by strong global cues, It was a  smart reversal beyond my expectations.

Winners and losers: If you look sector wise, metals was the top gainer on the back of shortcovering at lower levels, followed by banks, oil and gas and technology shares. bank shares rallied on the expectation that RBI might pause it’s interest rate hike in the next review meeting scheduled on December 16. The BSE Metal Index was up 10.5%, Bankex was up 8%, Oil and Gas up 6.5% and IT Index was up 6%.