The week ahead : Bearish sentiments to continue ..

As expected, the markets were influenced by global cues last week. The week that passed by witnessed the global markets skidding on the prospects of a trade war. The on-going trade war between US and China over shadowed even the Fed rate hike and increase in GDP forecast. Another factor that contributed to the downfall of the markets was the resultant rise in crude oil and gold prices. Overall, Indian markets fell in line with the global sentiments registering an almost 2% fall. It is to be remembered that both the Nifty and the Sensex had registered a 4.8% fall last month and it is heading for another close in red this month.

Going ahead, the short term trend continues to be down. The Nifty closed below 10,000 for the first time since last October and it has breached the 200 day moving average which was poised at 10,150. The Sensex too, has breached all the immediate support levels including the 200 day DMA. It would be unrealistic to expect any strong positive movement this week considering that the March derivatives expiry is coming up. A further fall in the indices will reinforce the downtrend and bearish sentiments will become more and more prominent. Hence ‘wait and watch’ is the mantra of those who are trying to enter the markets with money. Investors who have already made profitable positions can think of booking profit or averaging the cost down depending on the future prospects of the stock they’re holding.

The equity markets will be shut down on Thursday and Friday on account of Mahavir jayanthi and Good Friday. The near term trend will be dictated by F & O expiry , macro data like US and UK GDP , FII and DII activity and the movement of crude oil and Gold prices.

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