The week ahead : The good show may continue …by J Victor on May 30th, 2016
In the biggest weekly gain since March 4, the Indian benchmark indices –the Sensex and the Nifty registered a gain of 1351 and 406 points respectively. There were several positive reasons for it such as expectation of a good monsoon season, approval of the National capital goods policy, positive comments on the financial situation of India by rating agencies such as Fitch and Morgan Stanley, better than expected Q4 results and the fears of Great Britain exiting the Euro Union. The global markets were also on a song as new home sales data showed a surge in US signalling economic recovery.
Going ahead, the auto sales numbers for May and the last leg of Q4 results will be published this week and we expect the market to go ahead for a firm close for the month end. The June derivatives segment has already started off with a bang signalling positive sentiments among investors. Both the indices have breached the 50 day and 200 day moving averages and it seems like it is poised for some more surge in the coming days. The Sensex and the Nifty can extend this rally till 27,000 and 8,200 respectively. However since the market has already moved up approximately 5.5% last week, a pause or a minor decline can be expected. It is highly unlikely that the markets will move up on a straight line.
For the week ahead , we expect the markets to trade in a range of 26,000-27,250 for the Sensex and 8000-8,200 for the Nifty with positive bias. Although it looks bullish right now , it’s based on certain expectations like good monsoon which if not materialised , will result in a fall in the markets.
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